Hilgardia
Hilgardia
Hilgardia
University of California
Hilgardia

Accuracy of cotton-planting forecasts assessed in the San Joaquin Valley

Authors

Douglas J. Munier
Peter B. Goodell
Joyce F. Strand

Authors Affiliations

D.J. Munier is Farm Advisor, UC Cooperative Extension, Glenn County; P.B. Goodell is IPM Advisor, Kearney Agricultural Center, UC Statewide IPM Program; J.F. Strand is Information Systems Manager and Agricultural Meteorologist, UC Statewide IPM Program.

Publication Information

Hilgardia 58(3):164-168. DOI:10.3733/ca.v058n03p164. July 2004.

PDF of full article, Cite this article

Abstract

In the first evaluation of its kind, we found that the UC Cooperative Extension (UCCE) 5-day degree-day forecast for cotton-planting conditions performed well in Bakersfield and Fresno when compared with the actual, observed temperatures from 1998 to 2002. In most cases, the forecast provided timely advice during the critical cotton-planting period. On average, only 7% of the forecasts failed to predict unfavorable conditions. Better-than-expected weather occurred 9% of the time when unfavorable conditions were forecast. On average during the 22 planting days of March (beginning March 10, the first allowable planting date in the San Joaquin Valley), 2.5 days (11%) were incorrectly forecast to have better-than-unfavorable planting conditions. In April, the cottonplanting forecasts were more reliable, with only 1 day out of 30 (3%), on average, that may have required replanting because of unpredicted, unfavorable conditions.

References

Brodt S, Goodell PB, Krebill-Prather RL. IPM in California Cotton Production: Issues in Measuring IPM Adoption. Poster D11-P for4th Nat IPM Symp, April 8–10, 2003. 2003. Indianapolis, IN. http://cipm.ncsu.edu/symposium/viewposters.cfm . 1 p.

[CDFA] California Department of Food and Agriculture. California Agricultural Resource Directory 2002. 2003. Sacramento, CA: 176 p

Johnson-Hake S, Hake KD, Kerby TA, Johnson-Hake S, Kerby TA, Hake KD. Planting and stand establishment. Cotton Production Manual. 1996. Oakland, CA: UC DANR Pub 3352. p 21–8

Kerby TA, Keeley M, Johnson S. Predicting cotton seedling emergence. Cal Ag. 1987. 41(3-4):24-6.

Kerby TA, Keeley M, Johnson S. Weather and seed quality variables to predict cotton seedling emergence. Agron J. 1989. 81:415-9.

Strand JF, Flint ML. Specialized programs delivered—2000 UC IPM update. 2000 Annual Report of UC Statewide IPM Project. 2000. Davis, CA: 16 p.

Wright SD, Vargas R, Weir B, et al. Effects of planting date and density on San Joaquin Valley cotton. Beltwide Cotton Production Conf Proc. 1998. 2:1450-1.

Munier D, Goodell P, Strand J. 2004. Accuracy of cotton-planting forecasts assessed in the San Joaquin Valley. Hilgardia 58(3):164-168. DOI:10.3733/ca.v058n03p164
Webmaster Email: wsuckow@ucanr.edu