University of California

Modeling vineyard expansion, potential habitat fragmentation


Emily Heaton
Adina M. Merenlender

Authors Affiliations

E. Heaton is Graduate Student, Integrated Hardwood Range Management Program, Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, UC Berkeley; A.M. Merenlender is Cooperative Extension Specialist, Integrated Hardwood Range Management Program, Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, UC Berkeley. This research was supported by the UC Sustainable Agriculture Research and Education Program. We would like to thank Circuit Rider Productions, Inc. and the Sonoma County Grape Growers Association for the digital vineyard data. Dave Newburn, Peng Gong and Greg Biging provided valuable discussion on the topic. We are grateful to Greg Greenwood and Sean Saving, who provided the program for analyzing forest fragmentation, and to Colin Brooks for running this analysis. Discussions with Charles Cooke, Jeff Opperman, Daniel Roberts and two anonymous reviewers improved this manuscript.

Publication Information

Hilgardia 54(3):12-19. DOI:10.3733/ca.v054n03p12. May 2000.

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We used a statistical modeling technique called logistic regression analysis, and a geographic information system (GIS), to map areas of possible future vineyard expansion in Sonoma County, based on data about vineyard development from 1990 through 1997. The goal of this research was to develop a model that would improve our understanding of vineyard expansion patterns at a landscape scale (for instance, including an entire county). The approach involved identifying landscape characteristics that were associated with vineyard development and mapping the areas with similar characteristics that were undeveloped in 1997. We used the results to map where habitat removal and fragmentation could result from vineyard expansion. This method, although still under development, is designed for county- or regional-scale analysis to assist land-use planners, natural resource protection agencies and land conservation programs in protecting valuable environmental resources while sustaining a vital agricultural economy.


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Heaton E, Merenlender A. 2000. Modeling vineyard expansion, potential habitat fragmentation. Hilgardia 54(3):12-19. DOI:10.3733/ca.v054n03p12
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