Factors affecting the price of Gravenstein apples at Sebastopol

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The Problem

Early in 1927 the Gravenstein apple growers in the Sebastopol district organized partly for the purpose of strengthening their bargaining position with buyers in determining the price which they should receive for their apples. This brings up the problem of estimating, at the beginning of the season, the price which will equate supply and demand under the conditions prevailing that season.

While it is generally known that a large crop usually brings a low price per box, and a small crop usually brings a high price, no schedule has been worked out up to this time, on the basis of the average relationship that has prevailed between supply and price, showing the price which crops of various sizes have brought; and no study has been made of the effect on prices of other factors than the supply of Gravensteins in the Sebastopol district. It is the purpose of this paper to present and analyze the data available on this problem in order to determine the important factors that have affected prices in the past, and to show how the results may be used, as a starting point at least, for estimating a fair price at the beginning of the season under a given set of conditions.

Data Available

Records of Gravenstein apple production in the Sebastopol district and prices received by farmers at the packing plants are available from 1912 to date, and are shown in table 1 and figure 1. Table 1 also gives the all-commodity index number for July of each year, which gives a fairly good measure of the changing value of the dollar.